No evaluation studies have been made on the effects of progressive (financial) fines on violation behaviour or on road safety. A scenario analysis – based on certain assumptions – shows that a progressive penalty system for speeding offences could result in a 5% decline of the number of road deaths in the Netherlands [9]. Important assumptions in this estimate are:
- an 0.2 price elasticity of fines (i.e. each one percent increase in the amount of the fines results in an 0.2% decline in offences);
- a continuing, relatively high chance of being caught for speeding offences in the Netherlands;
- large public support for progressive fines; and
- support of the progressive penalty system by faster and better communication with offenders.
Earlier reports that contain proposals for new road safety policy [10] [11] also put forward a system of progressive fines for repeated Wahv-violations as one of the new measures that may be expected to have a positive road safety effect.