Review of road safety projects in Peru

Evaluation of project proposals establishing a medium and long-term road safety strategy


Koornstra, Matthijs J.



Background The preparation of the National Road Safety Strategy 2000-2004 for Peru is part of the Second Transport Rehabilitation Project (TRP-II), which is financed through funding from the World Bank. The project includes a traffic safety component of US$10 million for non-infrastructural aspects of road safety and an identical budget for infrastructural improvements, solely dedicated to safety enhancements of the main national road network, including urban stretches. The rapid motorization and enlargement of the road infrastructure, notwithstanding the relative safety of recently constructed roads, have resulted in rapidly increasing numbers of fatalities, injuries and accidents (an 85% increase in a decade, to more than 3,300 fatalities in 1998 with 1 million motor vehicles, which implies a risk 15 times higher than in the USA and northwest Europe). The (conservative) estimate of the macro-economic loss due to traffic accidents amounts to 1.6% of the gross national product (GNP) of Peru, and is on the rise. Objective The objective of the initiative is to establish an effective road safety strategy. It addresses institutional, technical and financial aspects of a comprehensive and effective road safety programme, by providing the National Road Safety Council (Consejo Nacional de Seguridad Vial, CNSV) with a framework for identifying priorities and enabling effective implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of a medium-term road safety strategy. This primarily relates to the TRP-II investments, but should also contribute to a self-financing organization of road safety improvements after 2003. The objectives are quantified in detail in Chapter 1, and are shown to be almost certainly achievable in Chapter 3. The road safety component of TRP-II will establish a road safety strategy that reduces the number of road fatalities from an expected level of ca. 3,500 in 2000, to 2,900 in 2015. Without this effort, the number would increase to 3,840 fatalities in 2015. Implementation of the road safety strategy will therefore make a total difference of about 7,100 lives saved over the period 2000 to 2015. Without implementation of the road safety strategy, the annual economic loss due to lack of road safety in Peru would increase to 1.9% of the GNP of Peru. With the implementation of the road safety strategy, these costs will level off below 1.7% in 2001, and reduce thereafter to 1.4% of the Peruvian GNP in 2015. Over these 15 years, the economic return on investment could be at least 12.5%. The road safety component of TRP-II The road safety component of TRP-II involves the implementation of seven selected non-infrastructural projects and one project for infrastructural improvement of road safety in Peru. The specification of the projects has been prepared by the CNSV with the help of a reviewing expert from the SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research in the Netherlands. Implementation of the projects will be the responsibility of the CNSV, but will also involve a variety of organizations and institutions which, depending on the content of the specific project, can be governmental or non-governmental. Seven project proposals concern urgent non-infrastructural aspects of road safety and its institutional organization. These projects are: 1) The management, organization and positioning of the CNSV. 2) The possibilities for self-financing of further road safety activities. 3) Registration of accidents, including the establishment of a database system for statistical analyses, monitoring and evaluation of road safety. 4) Road safety surveys and campaigns. 5) Road safety education in primary and secondary schools. 6) Development of a licensing system. 7) Institutional strengthening of police enforcement with respect to road safety, including the provision and use of modern equipment; For each of these seven projects, investments have been allocated amounting to US$10 million in total. A similar amount has been allocated to the eighth project proposal: 8) Substantial improvement of infrastructural road safety by treatment of black spots or dangerous stretches on the national highways (US$9 million) and the optimized safety, for demonstration purposes, of a highway between - and through - two small cities (US$1 million). Peruvian consultants have been commissioned to produce five of the eight proposals and these have now been finalized. Proposal number six has been postponed, due to prospective ratification of the driving licence law. Project proposal number three, by a consultant from abroad, has been specified in an interim report, which will be finalized after agreement with the Minister of the Interior. An interim report on the last project proposal has just been finalized by the Peruvian consultant commissioned, but the final proposal will still need substantial improvements considered necessary for successful project implementation. This will not cause a delay since the project is to be implemented after May 2000, as part of the renovation works of the TRP-II. Scope of the review services Assistance to the Executive Secretariat of the CNSV (SE-CNSV) and the evaluation of project proposals for the road safety component of TRP-II is contracted by a consultant services agreement with SWOV. This agreement, with UPI no. 156062, concerns: 1) Assistance in preparing the terms of reference (ToR) for project proposals. 2) Evaluation of preliminary specifications in the interim reports of the project proposals, obtained from the consultants commissioned, and assistance in improving the proposals. 3) Evaluation of finalized project proposals. This document contains the review of the eight project proposals, with each review report basically set up according to this scheme. The review services were based on: - Familiarization with Peruvian circumstances, discussions with relevant authorities, agencies, and consultants, and discussions with, and assistance to, the SE-CNSV, enabled through visits to Peru and the assistance of a Lima-based expert (Mr. C. Cordero, sub-contracted by SWOV). - Discussions with the World Bank transport specialist for Latin America. - Assessment of project effectiveness in view of Peruvian circumstances and internationally available road safety knowledge. - Assessment of appropriateness and quality of project implementations. - Assessment of feasibility, costs and benefits of proposal implementations, including feasibility of inter-agency co-ordination and (local, regional, and national) government participation. - Assistance to the SE-CNSV in: a) optimizing the project designs. b) selecting the most effective implementations to be prepared in the interim and/or final reports. c) co-ordinating project proposals on subjects that can have synergistic multiplier effects on road safety. d) appropriate allocation of funds for the projects within the limits of the total amount available. e) optimizing the national medium and long-term road safety plan. Review summary The overall objective for an improved road safety in Peru is based on a quantitative analysis, described in Chapter 1, and its feasible achievement, described in Chapter 3. The review of the project proposals for the road safety component of TRP-II, and their specific objectives, are described in Chapter 2. Main conclusions and recommendations The planned project implementations for the road safety component of TRP-II will almost certainly improve the reduction of the fatality rate from the current reduction of ca. 4% per year, to a reduction of 6% or more per year in 2004 and thereafter. This is concluded in Chapter 3 from the research knowledge on the effectiveness of road safety measures and the review of these project proposals. The economic return on the planned total investment for road safety is shown to be much higher than 12.5%, even if the project effectiveness should unexpectedly turn out to be only half the level of conservative, research-based estimates on their effectiveness. The feasibility of a substantial road safety improvement by the projects for the road safety component of TRP-II, could be endangered by not attaching a relatively higher political priority to road safety in Peru, and by the apparent lack of professional expertise on road safety for the project implementations. It is recommended that the SE-CNSV formulates five-year road safety plans, and updates these plans every two or three years, and that it should obtain the approval of the Minister for Transport and CNSV for policy on these plans for the long-term road safety strategy in Peru. The SE-CNSV and the World Bank should look for some twinning arrangement with a foreign road safety organization of outstanding quality, in order to co-operatively enhance the expertise of the SE-CNSV and the effectiveness of its road safety strategy. In order to improve road safety expertise in Peru, the SE-CNSV should also organize seminars on technical and methodological road safety issues for professionals in Peru. Moreover, with respect to the specific projects, it is recommended that the SE-CNSV (1)takes great care of the actual and timely introduction of systems aimed to raise contributions for the self-financing of the CNSV and its road safety projects after 2003; (2) insures that periodically intensified enforcement on drinking and driving, speeding or seat belt use coincides with information campaigns on these subjects in the same period, and (3) acquires experts for statistical analysis and research in order to evaluate road safety development and to produce annual reports on the monitoring and evaluation of the progress of its projects. Last but not least, it is recommended that the SE-CNSV develops and implements, from 2003/2004 onwards, new projects for further intensified enforcement in combination with public information campaigns on seat belt use, drinking and driving, and speeding, as well as new projects for further infrastructural road safety improvement of rural roads and cities, the latter particularly using modern traffic-calming measures and crossing facilities for pedestrians, since these projects have the highest potential for a further substantial improvement of road safety in Peru.

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SWOV, Leidschendam