Evolution of road accidents

The interpretation of road accident statistics is discussed. It is shown that the reduction in road accidents in early 1994 was not attributable to winter weather and fewer elderly pedestrians but to an ongoing year on year decline of 3.8% in the number of accidents. The effect of stochastic processes on accident statistics is outlined. The influence of growth in vehicle ownership and mobility on accident statistics is described. The trend for increased mobility but fewer accidents seen in the Netherlands is discussed and it is suggested that an annual 8-10% reduction in fatality rates is achievable in Central and Eastern European Countries if appropriate measures are taken sufficiently quickly. Poland is used as an example.