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Defining the future of passenger car transport

Deliverable D6.1 of the H2020 project LEVITATE

Auteur(s)

Boghani, H.C.; Papazikou, E.; Zwart, R. de; Roussou, J.; Hu, B.; Filtness, A.; Papadoulis, A.

Jaar

2019

The aim of the LEVITATE project is to prepare a new impact assessment framework to enable policymakers to manage the introduction of connected and automated transport systems, maximise the benefits and utilise the technologies to achieve societal objectives. As part of this work, LEVITATE seeks to forecast societal level impacts of connected and automated transport systems (CATS). These impacts include impacts on safety, environment, economy and society. This report specifically focuses on passenger cars as part of CATS. Urban transport and Freight transport are considered in deliverable 5.1 and 7.1, respectively. The aim of this report is to provide a working framework under which the future of automated passenger cars and resulting impacts can be defined as is relevant for the future work of LEVITATE project. This includes defining expected penetration rates as influenced by market forces and technology adoption, possible use cases of automated passenger cars, their impacts and associated timeframe. A comprehensive list of impacts has been discussed and provided in deliverable 3.1 of LEVITATE and therefore not included in this report.

Forecasts of ADAS penetration made in 2005 compared to actual penetration of ADAS technologies in present days, clearly showed overestimation. By comparison, it is probable that current estimations of technology adoption of SAE level 3 - 5 may be overestimates as there are several affecting factors including user trust, willingness to pay, market forces and costs and, policies and regulations. Most studies and organisations have predicted market penetration of SAE level 3 - 5 CATS between 8% and 30% by year 2030 and SAE level 5 close to saturation (100%) after year 2060. It is worth noting that a connected vehicles future is closer and market penetration is expected to be close to 100% within the coming decade (i.e. by 2030). Initial information on forecasted market penetration will inform the subsequent work (tasks 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4) to look at short-, medium- and long-term impacts of passenger cars, respectively. The findings presented in this report were obtained in two ways, through literature review and a stakeholder workshop. An extensive literature review of the impacts on urban transport for the short, medium and long-term future will be provided as an outcome of the corresponding subsequent tasks 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, therefore it is out of the scope of this report. Literature review on ADAS (SAE level 1/2 technologies) showed clear impacts on traffic, safety, environment, mobility and society, albeit small percentages. It is expected that level 3 - 5 technologies will also have major impacts on traffic, safety, environment, economy and mobility.

A stakeholder reference group workshop was conducted to gather views from city administrators and industry on the future of CATS and possible uses (i.e. use cases) of automated passenger cars, named, sub-use cases. The outcome of this was expected to inform the future work in terms of prioritisation on interventions and sub-use cases to analyse within WP6 of LEVITATE. It emerged that while planning processes extend to year 2040 for level 5 technology, no formal definitions of exactly what to expect are in
place. Overall, workshop participants stated that CATS were mainly expected to supplement public transport functions. According to the participants, there are many opportunities that would emerge through these new technologies and cities would need to prepare to take full advantage of them.

The widespread use of automated passenger cars for personal use is more likely to be distant than their use as mobility services (such as taxis) simply due to prohibitive initial costs. Also, various forecasting studies show that the claimed (by CATS industry) benefits will only be achieved if we move from privately owned to a shared-ownership model. A list of sub-use cases of possible interest for use cases of passenger cars from a CATS perspective has been developed, informed by the literature and stakeholder workshop. This list will be prioritised and refined within subsequent tasks in the project to inform the interventions and scenarios related to passenger cars which will be included in the LEVITATE policy support tool (PST).

Looking further ahead within work package 6, task 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4 will focus on forecasting short-, medium- and long-term impacts. These impacts (from task 3.1) will be forecasted with prioritised sub-use cases and interventions (mentioned in this report) using appropriate methods developed in task 3.2. Appropriate market penetration will be considered as part of forecasts and the obtained quantitative relationship between level of penetration of automation (or intervention) and impacts will be used in WP8 for PST.

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European Commission, Brussels