Publication

Defining the future of urban transport

Deliverable D5.1 of the H2020 project LEVITATE

Author(s)

Roussou, J.; Papazikou, E.; Zwart, R. de; Hu, B.; Boghani, H.C.; Yannis, G.

Year

2019

The aim of the LEVITATE project is to prepare a new impact assessment framework to enable policymakers to manage the introduction of connected and automated transport systems, maximise the benefits and utilise the technologies to achieve societal objectives. As part of this work the LEVITATE project seeks to forecast societal level impacts of connected and automated transport systems (CATS). These include impacts on safety, environment, economy and society.

This report specifically focuses on urban transport. The aim of this report is to provide a framework under which the future of automated urban transport and resulting impacts can be defined as relevant for the future work of the LEVITATE project. This includes defining expected penetration rates as influenced by market forces and technology adoption. This initial information on forecasted market penetration rates will inform the subsequent work (tasks 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4) to analyze short-, medium- and long-term impacts of CATS on urban transport, respectively. The findings presented in this report were obtained in two ways, through a preliminary literature review on the impacts of autonomous shuttles on urban transport and a dedicated stakeholder workshop. An extensive literature review of the impacts on urban transport for the short, medium  and long-term future will be provided as an outcome of the corresponding subsequent tasks 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4.

Literature review on Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), which are considered SAE level 2 technologies, indicated clear impacts on traffic, safety, environment, mobility and society, albeit small percentage. It is expected that level 3-5 technologies will have major impacts on traffic, safety, environment, economy and mobility. However, it is probable that current estimations of technology adoption may be overestimates, similarly to, forecasts of ADAS penetration made in 2005 compared to actual penetration of ADAS technologies clearly showed overestimation. In general, the literature suggests the future of CATS to be positive in terms of their impacts on traffic, safety, environment, economy and mobility. However, their uptake is most likely to be influenced by trust and user’s acceptance.

A stakeholder reference group workshop was conducted to gather views on future of CATS and possible use cases of urban transport, named, sub-use cases from city administrators and industry. A pre-workshop survey was also conducted to shape the workshop activities in a manner most applicable for the attending stakeholders. It emerged that while planning processes extend to 2040 for level 5 technology, there is no agreement on what to expect. Overall, workshop participants stated that CATS were mainly expected to supplement public transport functions. According to the participants, there are many opportunities that would be available through this new technologies and cities would need to prepare to take full advantage of it.

A list of sub-use cases of possible interest for use cases of urban transport from CATS perspective has been developed, informed by the literature and stakeholder workshop. This list will be prioritised and refined within subsequent tasks in the project to inform the interventions and scenarios related to urban transport which will be included in the LEVITATE Policy Support Tool (PST).

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report

Pages

80

Publisher

European Commission, Brussels