Assessments and Outlooks

Within the project Assessments and Outlooks (recent) road safety developments are monitored and the future numbers of road crash casualties are forecast. Identifying and analysing new developments is also part of this project.

Most important conclusions Monitor Policy Stimulus Road Safety  2015

The most important findings in the Monitor Policy Stimulus Road Safety  2015 are:

  • The actions in the Policy Stimulus are different of nature. Some actions have a more supportive character and, for example, focus on knowledge development. These actions do not save casualties themselves, but can lead to measures that do save casualties. Each action has been given the indication that it is either a concrete measure or that it is a supportive action for policy or practise.
  • The casualty data relates to 2013 and earlier, whereas most of the actions were carried out from 2013 onward and need some time to result in actual change. The actions in the Policy Stimulus of this year can therefore not yet be related to developments in the numbers of casualties.
  • It is not possible to show causal connections between developments in annual numbers of casualties and measures that were taken. In future Monitors we will compare different developments and – where possible – discuss the effects. To this end, the internationally accepted Safety Performance Indicators (SPIs) will be used. These indicators are related to road user behaviour or the safety of infrastructure or vehicles and are also referred to as risk factors or influence factors for road safety. They form the link between measures and crashes.

Most important conclusions Road Safety Outlook

  • The target of a maximum of 10.600 serious road injuries in 2020 will most probably not be achieved with the present and intended policy.
  • The expected number of road deaths in 2020 will probably be equal to the target of a maximum of 500 road deaths.
  • Also in 2030, the number of serious road injuries will most probably exceed the number of 10.600.
  • In 2030 the number of road deaths is expected to be between 330 and 470.

Products in 2015

In 2015 the following products were made:

Furthermore, a start was made in 2015 to disseminate the results that were published in the 2014 report Lasten van verkeersletsel ontleed (Dutch only). This was done in the Netherlands and als internationally and resulted in the following publications contributions:


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Project nr.



Start date: 01 Jan 2015
End date: 31 Dec 2015