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In 2008, there were 750 road deaths in the Netherlands, 41 (5%) fewer than in 2007. This is a positive development. The number of road deaths is exactly the Dutch target for 2010: a maximum of 750 road deaths in the year 2010.
In the report 'Road safety in 2007: is a standstill a step backwards?' SWOV found last year that certain human traffic behaviours that are relevant for road safety did not continue to improve in 2007. This can possibly partly be attributed to stagnation in the increase or a decrease of the efforts of regional traffic enforcement teams. SWOV made the observation that there seems to be a standstill, and that in this particular case that could result in a step backwards. In 2008 the number of road deaths shows a further decrease. This decrease, however, coincides with a decrease of mobility. SWOV estimates that the number of road kilometres travelled decreased by some 4%. In 2008, the death rate (number of road deaths per billion kilometres travelled) is approximately equal to the death rate in 2007, while in previous years the death rate has been decreasing almost every year. Exceptionally, the death rate did not decrease in 2008.
The death rate failing to show a further decrease is a reason for some concern regarding the road safety development. Indeed, when the economy improves again, and consequently mobility also increases, and the death rate does not change, the number of road deaths will increase. Road safety measures often have an influence on the death rate and as the death rate did not continue to decrease in 2008, policy measures are less likely to have been effective last year.
International comparison of the data until 2007 shows that in the period 1991-2007 the number of road deaths in the Netherlands decreased with approximately the same percentage as the average decrease in the 15 original EU member states. In some countries (France, Germany, Portugal, Spain) the decrease is stronger than average. The countries with a similar road safety level as the Netherlands (United Kingdom and Sweden) had a larger decrease of the number of road deaths than the Netherlands. The number of fatalities per member of the population (mortality) is somewhat lower in the Netherlands than in the United Kingdom and Sweden.
Remarkably, the decrease of the number of road deaths in 2008 can mainly be attributed to the casualties who died between 11 to 30 days after the crash. The real number of road deaths in this category decreased from an average of 50 in the years 2006 and 2007 to 19 in the year 2008. In the period 1998-2007, the registered number of road deaths in this category averaged 40 (4.4%) and decreased to 13 road deaths (1.9%) in 2008. We are as yet unable to give an explanation, but we do find it important to ascertain if the explanation can be found in road safety developments, in medical care, or in changes in the quality of the registration. SWOV will investigate this further.