The strong decrease in road deaths during the last two years was not coincidental. Part of the decrease was because mopeds were ridden less, there were less speeding offences, there was less drink-driving, and the seatbelt was worn more often. This is what SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research concludes in its recent report entitled: The essence of the decrease in the number of road deaths; Recent developments and new prognoses for 2010 and 2020.
In 2004 the number of road deaths decreased by 19% compared with 2003, to 881. In 2005 the number decreased further, by 7%, to 817.
Not all explained yet
The SWOV report shows that in 2004 and 2005 there were about 175 road deaths a year less than were expected according to a long series of averages. SWOV attributes about a third of these to fewer kilometres ridden on the moped, less speeding, less drink-driving, and more seatbelt wearing. The causes of the other two-thirds could not be found. The study used existing databases and statistics.
In 2004 and 2005 sales of new mopeds declined. According to the SWOV analysis, this saved about 15 lives. There are also indications that the number of series speeding offences decreased in 2005, thus saving another 15 lives. 15 lives were also saved because the number of 'light' alcohol offenders decreased.
During the last years more motorists and their passengers wore a seatbelt. In 2005 about 90% of all car occupants wore one, compared with 75% in the late 1990s; this saved about 10 lives.
Other measures: insufficient indications for sharp decrease
SWOV also examined any influence of possible changes in the roads and their layout, safer vehicles, and new traffic laws on the numbers of deaths.
SWOV does not exclude the possibility that measures taken to make the roads safer also had an effect. However, because national data on which infrastructural measures have been implemented does not exist, SWOV can not make unambiguous statements. SWOV would like to have such data for further research on this subject.
At present, many safety developments in vehicles are being carried out. However, SWOV does not wish to attribute the sharp fall in road deaths to them because such developments are very gradual.
Regional differences
All districts showed a decrease in the number of fatalities, but the numbers were not the same everywhere. Some districts showed a sharp decrease in road deaths, and others had a longer, more gradual decrease. Further research will have to explain these differences.
Prognoses for 2010 and 2020: traffic even safer
SWOV has also made prognoses for the numbers of road deaths in 2010 and 2020. We sketched two scenarios, an optimistic one and a pessimistic one. The study showed that the optimistic one can be considered likely.
SWOV concludes that the road death target of 750 for 2010 is feasible and the maximum number for 2020 can be 550.
Recommendations
Based on this analysis, SWOV makes two recommendations:
- Improve the availability of data that can show road safety improvements: infrastructural developments, traffic volumes, traffic behaviour, crash data, etc.
- Decide and realise a further analysis of the similarities and differences between regional developments, so that districts can learn from each other.
The report has been presented to the members of the National Mobility Council who advises about a new target for the future number of road deaths.
The report The essence of the decrease in the number of road deaths; Recent developments and new prognoses for 2010 and 2020. is in Dutch, but has an English summary.
|
