SWOV has carried out a long term outlook on the numbers of road deaths and in-patients in the Netherlands. The main issue was the feasibility of the government policy targets for 2010 and 2020. In addition, an estimate was made of the effects of several intended road safety measures. SWOV has concluded that, based on current and intended future policy, it is far from certain that the targets will be achieved. Additional measures will be necessary. Calculating the effects of these measures shows a realistic possibility to lower the present target for 2020.
Sharpening is being considered
An insight in the long term road safety developments is essential for timely adjustments of road safety policy and to see the need for new measures to be taken in time. The long term goals of road safety in the Netherlands can be found in the Mobility Paper. Currently, the Ministry of Transport is considering altering the 2020 target. The Mobility Paper has set the maximum number of road deaths in 2020 at 580; the maximum number of injured is set at 12,250. The intermediate target for 2010 is now 750 deaths, whereas previously it had been 900, and a maximum number of 17,000 injured.
Feasibility of targets
In Road Safety in 2020; Mobility, crashes, and policy outlooks, SWOV has estimated the expected numbers of casualties for 2010 and 2020. The starting point which was used were the four prognoses about the expectations for mobility that the ministry's Transport Research Centre had drawn up together with the Planning Agencies. This is an important factor for future casualty numbers.
SWOV first calculated the expected numbers of deaths and in-patients for all four exposure scenarios. Next, the feasibility of the current road safety targets was assessed for the scenarios with the largest and smallest mobility growth. The introduction of road pricing was also taken into account.
For the prognosis of the number of road crash casualties in 2020, we first examined what would happen if the current policy was continued unchanged, i.e. without any new measures being taken. This is known as the baseline prognosis. Then we quantified the expected extra contribution of a number of intended new measures.
Feasibility uncertain with current policy
The baseline prognosis showed that continuation of the current policy without extra new measures, makes the feasibility of achieving the targets in the Mobility Paper extremely unlikely. This is especially the case for the the large mobility growth scenario.
New intended policy
Based on policy documents and interviews with policy makers, we made calculations for five new measures during the coming period:
- introduction of accompanied driving from 17 years old;
- encouraging the use of the informative version of the Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA) for cars and delivery vans;
- extra stimulation of a safety culture in haulage companies by using ITS and feedback on behaviour to lorry drivers;
- a one time extra investment of €300 million in dangerous trunk roads (state as well as provincial);
- an annual €100 million extra for a 14-year period to make the lower order road network safer.
If these measures are taken between now and 2020, we expect to get nearer the targets. An annual number of 80 road deaths and 2,600 in-patients will then be saved.
Lower targets feasible, but extra measures necessary
Additional measures remain necessary to bring achieving a lower target in 2020 within reach,. Based on the starting points of Advancing Sustainable Safety, SWOV recommends developing an additional set of measures. Further elaboration of these measures is needed to determine their quantitative effects, but previous effect calculations have shown that substantial savings in casualties are to be expected. SWOV expects a sharpening of the current government targets for 2020 to be realistic.
The report entitled Road Safety in 2020; Mobility, crashes, and policy outlooks, R-2006-27, has been available at www.swov.nl since 26th April 2007. The report is in Dutch, but has an English summary.
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